Continent Radar - Oceania

The UN Special Committee on Decolonisation has heard calls for action on New Caledonia, French Polynesia, Guam, and Tokelau, with a focus on self-determination and decolonisation. New Zealand's Foreign Minister Winston Peters has reaffirmed his country's commitment to the region, announcing a significant increase in foreign aid to the Pacific. Meanwhile, Papua New Guinea's Prime Minister James Marape has released a performance review of his government, but faces criticism from his predecessor. The Solomon Islands government has terminated tax exemption agreements with the mining, forestry, and fisheries sectors, and the new chair of the Pacific Islands Forum, Mathew Wale, has appealed for global peace and stability. In other news, Pacific nations are responding to natural disasters, such as undersea volcanic activity in the Bismarck Sea, and tributes are being paid to the Cook Islands' first female deputy prime minister, Ngamau Mere Munokoa.

The US has changed the name of its Indo-Pacific Command back to Pacific Command, sparking speculation about the reasons behind this move. The change, announced by Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, may be a nod to history, a branding change, or a rhetorical alignment with the new US National Defense Strategy. The renaming may be perceived as a slight to India and other Indian Ocean nations, while China may view it as a sign of the US focusing on the Pacific Ocean as the main theatre of contest. The change also raises questions about regional naming conventions and the potential for crossed purposes among allies and partners.

Australia has excluded Vanuatu from its Pacific Engagement Visa (PEV) ballot, sparking criticism that the move is a form of leverage in ongoing security negotiations. The PEV offers permanent residence in Australia for up to 3000 Pacific Islanders from 11 eligible countries. Vanuatu, which has been part of the ballot for the past two years, is currently negotiating a security agreement with Australia, as well as a similar deal with China. The Australian government's decision comes after Vanuatu refused to sign the Nakamal Agreement, which would commit the two countries to a 10-year security arrangement. The move has been seen as a signal that access to opportunities for Vanuatu citizens depends on agreeing to terms set by Australia. Meanwhile, other Pacific Island nations such as Tuvalu and the Marshall Islands have been added to the list, while Nauru has lost 100 places. The Solomon Islands has had its allocation doubled to 300 places, following a recent trip by its Prime Minister to Australia.

China's security presence in the Pacific and Indian oceans has expanded significantly under Xi Jinping's leadership since 2013. Beijing has built relationships, gained access to strategic locations, and developed a broad ecosystem of tools to project influence and power. This includes a growing blue-water navy, overseas logistics network, and deepening security relationships. In the Southwest Pacific, China's engagement has shifted from diplomacy and development to a broader security posture, with policing cooperation, security agreements, and military assistance. The Indian Ocean has also seen increased Chinese activity, with counter-piracy deployments, naval bases, and access arrangements. While many countries welcome Chinese investment and security assistance, understanding the cumulative effect of these activities is crucial for regional states to respond to China's growing security footprint.

New Caledonia is gearing up for crucial provincial elections on June 28, with over 190,000 voters set to cast their ballots. The campaign has officially kicked off, with parties taking to the streets, social media, and mainstream media to get their messages across. However, the elections are taking place against a backdrop of security concerns, with the French High Commission maintaining a high level of security forces on the ground. Recent incidents, including the theft of telecommunication poles and vandalism of cash ATMs, have raised concerns about potential disruptions to the electoral process. French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu has warned against the risks of foreign digital interference, citing previous cases of interference during elections. The elections are seen as a crucial test for the territory, which is still reeling from violent unrest in 2024 that left 14 people dead and caused over €2 billion in material damage. The economic and social situation remains difficult, with thousands jobless and key sectors such as transport and health severely affected. Despite these challenges, the elections offer a chance for the people of New Caledonia to shape their future and choose a path forward.

Bougainville's President Ishmael Toroama has accused Papua New Guinea's leaders of breaching the Melanesian Agreement, a landmark deal between the two parties, after the PNG parliament adopted a sessional order to deliberate on Bougainville's 2019 independence referendum result without the required consent of the Bougainville House of Representatives. The referendum saw 97.7% of people vote for independence from PNG. Toroama said the move 'runs contrary to principles of respect, good faith and partnership' in the peace agreement. PNG's Prime Minister James Marape responded that both parties had agreed to the majority threshold, but Toroama has called for international monitoring with UN support to address the breach. The situation remains tense, with Toroama urging Bougainvilleans to remain calm and united.

The expiration of the New START agreement between the US and Russia has brought attention to the growing nuclear capabilities of China, which is expected to have 3,000 warheads by 2030. This development poses a significant challenge to the global nuclear balance, as China's refusal to engage in arms control talks could lead to a dramatic shift in the nuclear landscape. With Russia and China's combined nuclear arsenal potentially outnumbering the US's, the stage is set for a new era of diplomatic confrontations and nuclear tensions. The possibility of limited nuclear warfare and the development of smaller, more advanced warheads further complicates the situation, making it essential for the international community to re-examine the role of nuclear weapons in global security.

Australia is moving away from a compliance-based approach to cybersecurity, instead focusing on building resilience in the face of evolving cyber threats. The government's Horizon 2 Action Plan and the Department of Home Affairs' acceptance of the independent review of the Security of Critical Infrastructure Act mark a significant shift towards this new approach. With a $89.3 million investment over four years, Horizon 2 aims to extend cybersecurity measures to small businesses, improve workforce capability, and secure the uptake of AI. The enhanced Critical Infrastructure Risk Management Program rules also play a crucial role in defining resilience in operational terms, requiring critical-system inventories, supplier mapping, and vendor assessment. This shift towards resilience is necessary, as compliance alone has proven insufficient in protecting against cyber threats. By acknowledging that critical infrastructure resilience is a property of systems, not individual operators, Australia is taking a more holistic approach to cybersecurity.

The Pacific community in New Zealand's Wairarapa region is facing significant challenges due to cost of living pressures and government cuts to social support services. Despite making up only 3.7% of the population, Pacific people are often on the frontline of social work, supporting vulnerable members of society. However, they are struggling themselves, with many facing difficulties in securing adequate housing and navigating complex visa requirements. Workers in the social services sector, such as Kalolaine Tulia and Iliana Sabutu, are feeling the strain of funding cuts and are calling for more support to help those in need. The community is operating in survival mode, with many households struggling to make ends meet.