Sudan - A Week of Tension

On September 11, 2026 at 18:01:14 UTC a military source reported that the army of Sudan shot down RSF drones near Khartoum. The incident occurred over the northern part of Omdurman and represents the heaviest air attack by the militia since the conflict began. A spokesperson for the army confirmed that all targeted drones were neutralised without civilian casualties, highlighting the regular forces' growing willingness to curb the RSF’s aerial advantage.

In the security sphere the situation further deteriorated as reports emerged of a SPLM‑RSF alliance advancing toward the Blue Nile capital. The coalition, comprising elements of the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement and the Rapid Support Forces, reinforced its troops and established defensive positions along major routes. The regular army responded with reinforcements and reported a series of engagements along the north‑south axis, employing heavy weaponry. At the same time Chad again denied any logistical support for the RSF in Geneva, underscoring the regional dimension of the conflict.

On the societal and economic front, pressures on civilians are mounting. Several humanitarian organisations warned that cuts in international aid are forcing dozens of clinics across the country to close, severely limiting medical care. Meanwhile state oil firm Zoyaal has resumed production and aims for 100,000 barrels per day by 2030, signalling attempts to secure revenue. The Egypt‑Sudan border saw an increase in cross‑border power capacity to 75 MW, and the EU publicly stated it will support private sector investment without fuelling the war economy. A Swiss gold export ban has further constrained the war‑financing channels of the combatants.

The risk has tightened by -2.07 compared with the previous day, indicating a rising pressure environment and accelerated escalation potential.

In summary, Sudan faces a volatile mix of military clashes, economic strain and diplomatic friction. The recent drone shoot‑down, the SPLM‑RSF advance and Chad’s continued denial of support illustrate the conflict’s complexity. While the international community extends sanctions and seeks to stabilise the economy, the humanitarian situation remains precarious and the threat of further combat expansion is high.

On 10 September 2026 at 18:03 UTC a drone strike was reported in eastern Sudan, killing 13 people. The incident, confirmed by local media, represents the deadliest single casualty event since the recent hostilities intensified and has once again drawn international observers’ focus to the rising violence in the country.

At the same time, reports from Geneva confirmed that Chad again denied any logistical support for the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), despite repeated accusations by human‑rights groups. In addition, border regions of the country have been highlighted as unsafe for crossings, with civilians frequently caught in firefights. A further alarming note comes from an analysis alleging chemical‑weapon use in the south of the country, implicating Israel in the accusations.

The humanitarian situation is worsening: aid funding cuts are forcing dozens of clinics to close, severely limiting medical care in rural areas. Meanwhile, the state oil company Zoyaal has resumed production and aims for 100,000 barrels per day by 2030, a move that could stabilize war‑time revenues. The economy, however, is further strained by recent EU and Swiss sanctions on Sudan’s gold trade, complicating already fragile commodity flows. Teachers’ unions report that wages cover only 3 % of living costs, fueling social tension.

The risk gauge has risen by +1.65 compared with the previous day, indicating increasing pressure in the country.

Overall, a picture of intense military activity, escalating humanitarian need and economic strain emerges, further undermining stability and posing new challenges to international efforts for a peaceful resolution.

On 9 September 2026 at 18:06:53 UTC a local news aggregator reported that a drone strike in north‑western Sudan killed 13 people. The incident drew international attention as the UN Human Rights Council presented new reports on foreign influences behind the ongoing conflict. At the same time former US lawmakers urged the council to accelerate steps toward an immediate cease‑fire.

The security situation remains volatile: following the drone strike, further exchanges of fire were reported around the town of El Geneina, again affecting civilians. Military demonstrations by both warring sides have been observed, raising the risk of a broader escalation. Local observers note unconventional violence against demonstrators protesting the persistent insecurity.

On the societal and economic front the humanitarian crisis deepens. The health system is on the brink of collapse after budget cuts severely limited critical services. Doctors cite shortages of medicines and overcrowded clinics. Meanwhile unions reveal that teachers’ wages cover only 3 % of living costs, sparking nationwide protests.

The composite risk gauge remains unchanged at 0, indicating a stable yet still tense situation compared with the previous day.

The coming days will be shaped by deliberations at the UN Human Rights Council, where the call for an immediate cease‑fire will continue to be debated. Observers expect that the ongoing health crisis and wage issues will add pressure on the combatants, while the international community watches the humanitarian situation closely.

On 8 September 2026 at 18:07 UTC, leaked documents revealed new details about the alleged chemical weapons program of the Sudanese army. The papers, cited by international media, shed light on possible chemical components and call for heightened monitoring. Sudan is once again under the spotlight of the global security community.

In the past 24 hours a Sudanese official accused Ethiopia of harbouring paramilitary forces near the border. The allegation raises the risk of unintended escalation along the frontier and could prompt increased military patrols. At the same time, local observers note a heightened display of force by Sudanese troops in strategic towns, further inflaming tensions.

Human rights chief Türk reiterated an urgent appeal to all parties to end the spiral of violence, emphasizing the humanitarian toll on civilians. Concurrently, several diplomatic actors signalled willingness for material cooperation and trade to stabilise the economy. These developments reflect both societal pressure and the drive to maintain economic activity despite the ongoing conflict.

The composite risk gauge showed with 0 versus the previous day no change, indicating a steady pressure level.

Overall, the situation in Sudan remains fraught with uncertainty, as the recent chemical‑weapons revelations and border accusations continue to strain security. The persistent calls for an end to violence and the pursued economic cooperation could provide footholds for de‑escalation if translated into concrete actions.

On 7 September 2026 at 18:06:04 UTC an Emirati One‑Way‑Attack (OWA) drone strike took place in Sudan, hitting several unidentified targets, according to Armament Research Services. The attacks, launched from unmanned aerial vehicles based in the United Arab Emirates, triggered immediate air‑defence alerts and demonstrate a new level of foreign military intervention in the country. Observers note that this operation further strains an already fragile security environment.

At the same time, the humanitarian situation worsens due to ongoing war‑driven blackouts that, as reported by Arab News, have plunged millions of residents into darkness. The population is turning increasingly to solar power, yet the high purchase costs leave many households unable to adopt the technology. Additionally, a Sudanese official has accused Ethiopia of harbouring paramilitary groups near the border, raising the risk of a spill‑over of hostilities. A new dossier released by Semafor also raises questions about alleged chemical weapons use in Sudan.

The persistent blackouts have severely disrupted economic activity; businesses report production halts and rising operating expenses. The surge in demand for solar panels has opened a new market segment for local traders, but affordability remains a critical barrier that deepens energy poverty. Concurrently, reports of unilateral trade restrictions, such as Doha’s cut of support for the Islamist war faction, further destabilise the economic landscape.

The composite risk gauge rose by 0.05 compared with the prior cycle, indicating a marginal tightening of pressure.

Given the continued foreign drone operations, the ongoing electricity crisis, and the border accusations, further destabilisation of Sudan appears likely unless effective countermeasures are implemented. The growing demand for solar energy could bolster long‑term resilience if financing gaps are addressed. The recent allegations against Ethiopia and the chemical‑weapons dossier raise the prospect of regional escalation, which security forces will monitor closely.