NFSI · monthly slice (ACLED overview)
Value from the latest ACLED monthly overview (nf_stabindex_score). Scale 0–100: higher = more stable / favourable in the NationFiles model; lower = stronger structural strain. Not a stand-alone violence tally.
Cross-country situational view from conflict, media and OSINT layers — this consolidated cut is unique to NationFiles.NationFiles NFSI Geopolitical Risk Analysis  Skip to main content What you are looking atShort guide to provenance and how to read the columns. You see aggregated indicators only. Show explanationACLED (Armed Conflict Location) Curated event data on organised violence. “30 days” counts incidents and fatalities; the monthly table uses the newest month snapshot per country. UCDP GED Uppsala Conflict Data Program — battle-related deaths (high estimate aggregated by year). Reference is the newest year in our database, not a live ticker. Convergence / watchlist Countries appearing in several top slices at once — overlap across signal types. High convergence merits deeper reading in the country radar, not an automatic “most dangerous state” label. Key figures at a glancePulse metrics and relative scale — context before the detailed tables. Global pulse ACLED · 30 days Events, fatalities, ISO2 areas with incidents
UCDP · list snapshot Aggregates for the same top-ranked areas as the table below (latest UCDP year in use).
Relative scale (ACLED 30d events vs. active ISO2 areas) Nowcast trend (top-mover ACLED Δ): mostly falling momentum Regional clusters Several high-burden countries in the same subregion among the ACLED 30d top slice — possible contagion zone. Maps and chartsGeographic overview and bars for ACLED 30d and UCDP. Top 5 · ACLED 30 days (events)
Situation visualised Interactive world map and bar charts for ACLED 30d and UCDP as in the conflict tables — big picture first, then the detailed rankings. ACLED · 30 days · world (top areas) Red = more recorded events in this ranking (relative to the max). Click or press Enter on a country to open its security radar. Map shading: relative ACLED 30d events; max in this ranking = — events. Click a step to hide other intensities; “All” resets. ACLED 30d — events Bar length = share of the maximum within this top list (not global). UCDP — battle-related deaths (high) Bar length = share of the maximum within this top list (not global). Country fusion board · multi-signal viewCountry dashboard: six windows, synthesis & convergence — expand for detail and methodology. Full fusion contextEach territory is shown as a cross-cut of monthly instability, ACLED 30d, UCDP year view, news risk, OSINT and raw signals (7d) — with a synthesis index and convergence across all six windows. Method, limits & confidenceSynthesis index 0–100: average of per-source values normalised to the page maxima (only populated dimensions count). Convergence 0–6: how many top slices (per source, same depth as the matrix) the territory hits simultaneously. No forecast and no editorial judgement — structured pattern detection across parallel measures. Fusion at a glance Bar charts for synthesis and convergence — same country set as the cards below, for a quick scan before the detail boards. Synthesis Synthesis 0–100; bars scaled to the highest card in this set. Convergence Convergence 0–6; bar scale to 6. Synthesis 75 med Convergence 3/6 Nowcast 100 Baseline 61.8 Impact 47.8 Composite 71 ACLED 30d high 299 Δ / avg -48.6% As of 2026-05-01 12:00:00 UTC Sources 1 UCDP year med 8565 Δ / avg — As of Year 2026 Sources 1 News risk — — Δ / avg — As of — Sources 1 Raw signals 7d — — Δ / avg — As of — Sources 1 Kinetic: NF · A30 · UCD · Media: — Elevated overlap 3 windows with data Sources: NF · A30 · UCD Board 2026-05-13 06:16:06 UTC ACLED 30d Δ -48.6% Ukraine: elevated overlap across windows — mind each metric’s time reference. Event picture and fusion detail in country radar → Cell confidence: heuristic from top-slice + data age. NF high 0 2026-05-31 23:59:59 UTC A30 high 299 2026-05-01 12:00:00 UTC UCD med 8565 2026-01-01 00:00:00 UTC NW — — OS — — R7 — — How the synthesis score (0–100) is builtWith a kinetic trace (ACLED 30d or UCDP): weighted blend of kinetic vs media dimensions (each source scaled to the page maximum). No forecast — structured orientation, not statistical significance. Technical pattern notes
Synthesis 52 med Convergence 1/6 Nowcast 79.9 Baseline 37.6 Impact 33.9 Composite 48 ACLED 30d high 239 Δ / avg -51.2% As of 2026-05-01 12:00:00 UTC Sources 1 UCDP year low 319 Δ / avg — As of Year 2026 Sources 1 News risk — — Δ / avg — As of — Sources 1 Raw signals 7d — — Δ / avg — As of — Sources 1 Kinetic: NF · A30 · UCD · Media: — Routine watch 3 windows with data Sources: NF · A30 · UCD Board 2026-05-13 06:16:06 UTC ACLED 30d Δ -51.2% Mexico: routine watch — not an automatic escalation. Event picture and fusion detail in country radar → Cell confidence: heuristic from top-slice + data age. NF med 25.75 2026-05-31 23:59:59 UTC A30 high 239 2026-05-01 12:00:00 UTC UCD low 319 2026-01-01 00:00:00 UTC NW — — OS — — R7 — — How the synthesis score (0–100) is builtWith a kinetic trace (ACLED 30d or UCDP): weighted blend of kinetic vs media dimensions (each source scaled to the page maximum). No forecast — structured orientation, not statistical significance. Synthesis 46 med Convergence 0/6 Nowcast 69.9 Baseline 34.4 Impact 28.8 Composite 39 ACLED 30d med 209 Δ / avg -66% As of 2026-05-01 12:00:00 UTC Sources 1 UCDP year low 890 Δ / avg — As of Year 2026 Sources 1 News risk — — Δ / avg — As of — Sources 1 Raw signals 7d — — Δ / avg — As of — Sources 1 Kinetic: NF · A30 · UCD · Media: — Routine watch 3 windows with data Sources: NF · A30 · UCD Board 2026-05-13 06:16:06 UTC ACLED 30d Δ -66% Pakistan: routine watch — not an automatic escalation. Event picture and fusion detail in country radar → Cell confidence: heuristic from top-slice + data age. NF med 33.56 2026-05-31 23:59:59 UTC A30 med 209 2026-05-01 12:00:00 UTC UCD low 890 2026-01-01 00:00:00 UTC NW — — OS — — R7 — — How the synthesis score (0–100) is builtWith a kinetic trace (ACLED 30d or UCDP): weighted blend of kinetic vs media dimensions (each source scaled to the page maximum). No forecast — structured orientation, not statistical significance. Synthesis 90 med Convergence 2/6 Nowcast 0 Baseline 90.1 Impact 0 Composite 27 ACLED 30d — — Δ / avg — As of — Sources 1 UCDP year med 36386 Δ / avg — As of Year 2026 Sources 1 News risk — — Δ / avg — As of — Sources 1 Raw signals 7d — — Δ / avg — As of — Sources 1 Kinetic: NF · UCD · Media: — Elevated overlap 2 windows with data Sources: NF · UCD Board 2026-05-13 06:16:06 UTC Iran: elevated overlap across windows — mind each metric’s time reference. Event picture and fusion detail in country radar → Cell confidence: heuristic from top-slice + data age. NF high 19.75 2026-05-31 23:59:59 UTC A30 — — UCD med 36386 2026-01-01 00:00:00 UTC NW — — OS — — R7 — — How the synthesis score (0–100) is builtWith a kinetic trace (ACLED 30d or UCDP): weighted blend of kinetic vs media dimensions (each source scaled to the page maximum). No forecast — structured orientation, not statistical significance. Synthesis 83 med Convergence 1/6 Nowcast 92.3 Baseline 73.1 Impact 39 Composite 62 ACLED 30d high 276 Δ / avg -52.7% As of 2026-05-01 12:00:00 UTC Sources 1 UCDP year — — Δ / avg — As of Year 2026 Sources 1 News risk — — Δ / avg — As of — Sources 1 Raw signals 7d — — Δ / avg — As of — Sources 1 Kinetic: NF · A30 · Media: — Elevated overlap 2 windows with data Sources: NF · A30 Board 2026-05-13 06:16:06 UTC ACLED 30d Δ -52.7% Brazil: elevated overlap across windows — mind each metric’s time reference. Event picture and fusion detail in country radar → Cell confidence: heuristic from top-slice + data age. NF med 26.88 2026-05-31 23:59:59 UTC A30 high 276 2026-05-01 12:00:00 UTC UCD — — NW — — OS — — R7 — — How the synthesis score (0–100) is builtWith a kinetic trace (ACLED 30d or UCDP): weighted blend of kinetic vs media dimensions (each source scaled to the page maximum). No forecast — structured orientation, not statistical significance. Synthesis 71 med Convergence 1/6 Nowcast 66.9 Baseline 75.9 Impact 31 Composite 51 ACLED 30d med 200 Δ / avg -52.5% As of 2026-05-01 12:00:00 UTC Sources 1 UCDP year — — Δ / avg — As of Year 2026 Sources 1 News risk — — Δ / avg — As of — Sources 1 Raw signals 7d — — Δ / avg — As of — Sources 1 Kinetic: NF · A30 · Media: — Elevated overlap 2 windows with data Sources: NF · A30 Board 2026-05-13 06:16:06 UTC ACLED 30d Δ -52.5% Ecuador: elevated overlap across windows — mind each metric’s time reference. Event picture and fusion detail in country radar → Cell confidence: heuristic from top-slice + data age. NF high 24.06 2026-05-31 23:59:59 UTC A30 med 200 2026-05-01 12:00:00 UTC UCD — — NW — — OS — — R7 — — How the synthesis score (0–100) is builtWith a kinetic trace (ACLED 30d or UCDP): weighted blend of kinetic vs media dimensions (each source scaled to the page maximum). No forecast — structured orientation, not statistical significance. Synthesis 39 med Convergence 1/6 Nowcast 0 Baseline 39.3 Impact 0 Composite 12 ACLED 30d — — Δ / avg — As of — Sources 1 UCDP year low 764 Δ / avg — As of Year 2026 Sources 1 News risk — — Δ / avg — As of — Sources 1 Raw signals 7d — — Δ / avg — As of — Sources 1 Kinetic: NF · UCD · Media: — Routine watch 2 windows with data Sources: NF · UCD Board 2026-05-13 06:16:06 UTC Sudan: routine watch — not an automatic escalation. Event picture and fusion detail in country radar → Cell confidence: heuristic from top-slice + data age. NF high 23.5 2026-05-31 23:59:59 UTC A30 — — UCD low 764 2026-01-01 00:00:00 UTC NW — — OS — — R7 — — How the synthesis score (0–100) is builtWith a kinetic trace (ACLED 30d or UCDP): weighted blend of kinetic vs media dimensions (each source scaled to the page maximum). No forecast — structured orientation, not statistical significance. Synthesis 39 med Convergence 1/6 Nowcast 0 Baseline 38.7 Impact 0 Composite 12 ACLED 30d — — Δ / avg — As of — Sources 1 UCDP year med 1028 Δ / avg — As of Year 2026 Sources 1 News risk — — Δ / avg — As of — Sources 1 Raw signals 7d — — Δ / avg — As of — Sources 1 Kinetic: NF · UCD · Media: — Routine watch 2 windows with data Sources: NF · UCD Board 2026-05-13 06:16:06 UTC Nigeria: routine watch — not an automatic escalation. Event picture and fusion detail in country radar → Cell confidence: heuristic from top-slice + data age. NF med 25.34 2026-05-31 23:59:59 UTC A30 — — UCD med 1028 2026-01-01 00:00:00 UTC NW — — OS — — R7 — — How the synthesis score (0–100) is builtWith a kinetic trace (ACLED 30d or UCDP): weighted blend of kinetic vs media dimensions (each source scaled to the page maximum). No forecast — structured orientation, not statistical significance. Synthesis 38 low Convergence 1/6 Nowcast 86.8 Baseline 0 Impact 41 Composite 44 ACLED 30d — — Δ / avg — As of — Sources 1 UCDP year — — Δ / avg — As of Year 2026 Sources 1 News risk high 75 Δ / avg — As of 2026-05-13 12:00:00 UTC Sources 1 Raw signals 7d med 8 Δ / avg 72.34 As of 2026-05-12 00:43:25 UTC Sources 1 Kinetic: — · Media: NW · R7 Routine watch 2 windows with data Sources: NW · R7 Board 2026-05-13 06:16:06 UTC Brunei: synthesis here is from media, OSINT & raw signals — no documented ACLED/UCDP violence on this board. Event picture and fusion detail in country radar → Cell confidence: heuristic from top-slice + data age. NF — — A30 — — UCD — — NW high 75 2026-05-13 12:00:00 UTC OS — — R7 med 8 2026-05-12 00:43:25 UTC How the synthesis score (0–100) is builtWith a kinetic trace (ACLED 30d or UCDP): weighted blend of kinetic vs media dimensions (each source scaled to the page maximum). No forecast — structured orientation, not statistical significance. Technical pattern notes
Synthesis 38 low Convergence 1/6 Nowcast 94.8 Baseline 99.5 Impact 44.7 Composite 70 ACLED 30d — — Δ / avg — As of — Sources 1 UCDP year — — Δ / avg — As of Year 2026 Sources 1 News risk med 73 Δ / avg — As of 2026-05-13 12:00:00 UTC Sources 1 Raw signals 7d — — Δ / avg — As of — Sources 1 Kinetic: — · Media: NW · OS Routine watch 2 windows with data Sources: NW · OS Board 2026-05-13 06:16:06 UTC American Samoa: synthesis here is from media, OSINT & raw signals — no documented ACLED/UCDP violence on this board. Event picture and fusion detail in country radar → Cell confidence: heuristic from top-slice + data age. NF — — A30 — — UCD — — NW med 73 2026-05-13 12:00:00 UTC OS high 99.5 2026-05-13 12:00:00 UTC R7 — — How the synthesis score (0–100) is builtWith a kinetic trace (ACLED 30d or UCDP): weighted blend of kinetic vs media dimensions (each source scaled to the page maximum). No forecast — structured orientation, not statistical significance. Technical pattern notes
Synthesis 37 low Convergence 0/6 Nowcast 72.4 Baseline 95 Impact 34.2 Composite 55 ACLED 30d — — Δ / avg — As of — Sources 1 UCDP year — — Δ / avg — As of Year 2026 Sources 1 News risk — — Δ / avg — As of — Sources 1 Raw signals 7d med 8 Δ / avg 68.81 As of 2026-05-11 01:41:03 UTC Sources 1 Kinetic: — · Media: OS · R7 Routine watch 2 windows with data Sources: OS · R7 Board 2026-05-13 06:16:06 UTC Timor-Leste: synthesis here is from media, OSINT & raw signals — no documented ACLED/UCDP violence on this board. Event picture and fusion detail in country radar → Cell confidence: heuristic from top-slice + data age. NF — — A30 — — UCD — — NW — — OS med 95 2026-05-13 12:00:00 UTC R7 med 8 2026-05-11 01:41:03 UTC How the synthesis score (0–100) is builtWith a kinetic trace (ACLED 30d or UCDP): weighted blend of kinetic vs media dimensions (each source scaled to the page maximum). No forecast — structured orientation, not statistical significance. Technical pattern notes
Synthesis 37 med Convergence 1/6 Nowcast 0 Baseline 37.3 Impact 0 Composite 12 ACLED 30d — — Δ / avg — As of — Sources 1 UCDP year med 1026 Δ / avg — As of Year 2026 Sources 1 News risk — — Δ / avg — As of — Sources 1 Raw signals 7d — — Δ / avg — As of — Sources 1 Kinetic: NF · UCD · Media: — Routine watch 2 windows with data Sources: NF · UCD Board 2026-05-13 06:16:06 UTC Somalia: routine watch — not an automatic escalation. Event picture and fusion detail in country radar → Cell confidence: heuristic from top-slice + data age. NF med 28.3 2026-05-31 23:59:59 UTC A30 — — UCD med 1026 2026-01-01 00:00:00 UTC NW — — OS — — R7 — — How the synthesis score (0–100) is builtWith a kinetic trace (ACLED 30d or UCDP): weighted blend of kinetic vs media dimensions (each source scaled to the page maximum). No forecast — structured orientation, not statistical significance. Synthesis 32 low Convergence 1/6 Nowcast 80.8 Baseline 99.9 Impact 38.1 Composite 63 ACLED 30d — — Δ / avg — As of — Sources 1 UCDP year — — Δ / avg — As of Year 2026 Sources 1 News risk — — Δ / avg — As of — Sources 1 Raw signals 7d med 4 Δ / avg 76.73 As of 2026-05-11 18:44:00 UTC Sources 1 Kinetic: — · Media: OS · R7 Routine watch 2 windows with data Sources: OS · R7 Board 2026-05-13 06:16:06 UTC Jersey: synthesis here is from media, OSINT & raw signals — no documented ACLED/UCDP violence on this board. Event picture and fusion detail in country radar → Cell confidence: heuristic from top-slice + data age. NF — — A30 — — UCD — — NW — — OS high 99.9 2026-05-13 12:00:00 UTC R7 med 4 2026-05-11 18:44:00 UTC How the synthesis score (0–100) is builtWith a kinetic trace (ACLED 30d or UCDP): weighted blend of kinetic vs media dimensions (each source scaled to the page maximum). No forecast — structured orientation, not statistical significance. Technical pattern notes
Synthesis 31 low Convergence 1/6 Nowcast 89.3 Baseline 97.3 Impact 42.1 Composite 67 ACLED 30d — — Δ / avg — As of — Sources 1 UCDP year — — Δ / avg — As of Year 2026 Sources 1 News risk — — Δ / avg — As of — Sources 1 Raw signals 7d high 3 Δ / avg 84.83 As of 2026-05-08 21:54:52 UTC Sources 1 Kinetic: — · Media: OS · R7 Routine watch 2 windows with data Sources: OS · R7 Board 2026-05-13 06:16:06 UTC Mauritius: synthesis here is from media, OSINT & raw signals — no documented ACLED/UCDP violence on this board. Event picture and fusion detail in country radar → Cell confidence: heuristic from top-slice + data age. NF — — A30 — — UCD — — NW — — OS med 97.25 2026-05-13 12:00:00 UTC R7 high 3 2026-05-08 21:54:52 UTC How the synthesis score (0–100) is builtWith a kinetic trace (ACLED 30d or UCDP): weighted blend of kinetic vs media dimensions (each source scaled to the page maximum). No forecast — structured orientation, not statistical significance. Technical pattern notes
Synthesis 31 low Convergence 1/6 Nowcast 100 Baseline 95 Impact 47.2 Composite 71 ACLED 30d — — Δ / avg — As of — Sources 1 UCDP year — — Δ / avg — As of Year 2026 Sources 1 News risk — — Δ / avg — As of — Sources 1 Raw signals 7d high 2 Δ / avg 95 As of 2026-05-12 05:01:37 UTC Sources 1 Kinetic: — · Media: OS · R7 Routine watch 2 windows with data Sources: OS · R7 Board 2026-05-13 06:16:06 UTC Cayman Islands: synthesis here is from media, OSINT & raw signals — no documented ACLED/UCDP violence on this board. Event picture and fusion detail in country radar → Cell confidence: heuristic from top-slice + data age. NF — — A30 — — UCD — — NW — — OS med 95 2026-05-13 12:00:00 UTC R7 high 2 2026-05-12 05:01:37 UTC How the synthesis score (0–100) is builtWith a kinetic trace (ACLED 30d or UCDP): weighted blend of kinetic vs media dimensions (each source scaled to the page maximum). No forecast — structured orientation, not statistical significance. Technical pattern notes
Synthesis 31 med Convergence 0/6 Nowcast 61.2 Baseline 1 Impact 28.9 Composite 29 ACLED 30d med 183 Δ / avg -59.2% As of 2026-05-01 12:00:00 UTC Sources 1 UCDP year low 352 Δ / avg — As of Year 2026 Sources 1 News risk — — Δ / avg — As of — Sources 1 Raw signals 7d — — Δ / avg — As of — Sources 1 Kinetic: A30 · UCD · Media: — Routine watch 2 windows with data Sources: A30 · UCD Board 2026-05-13 06:16:06 UTC ACLED 30d Δ -59.2% Colombia: routine watch — not an automatic escalation. Event picture and fusion detail in country radar → Cell confidence: heuristic from top-slice + data age. NF — — A30 med 183 2026-05-01 12:00:00 UTC UCD low 352 2026-01-01 00:00:00 UTC NW — — OS — — R7 — — How the synthesis score (0–100) is builtWith a kinetic trace (ACLED 30d or UCDP): weighted blend of kinetic vs media dimensions (each source scaled to the page maximum). No forecast — structured orientation, not statistical significance. Synthesis 83 med Convergence 1/6 Nowcast 83.3 Baseline 0 Impact 39.3 Composite 42 ACLED 30d high 249 Δ / avg -58.7% As of 2026-05-01 12:00:00 UTC Sources 1 UCDP year — — Δ / avg — As of Year 2026 Sources 1 News risk — — Δ / avg — As of — Sources 1 Raw signals 7d — — Δ / avg — As of — Sources 1 Kinetic: A30 · Media: — Elevated overlap 1 windows with data Sources: A30 Board 2026-05-13 06:16:06 UTC ACLED 30d Δ -58.7% France: elevated overlap across windows — mind each metric’s time reference. Event picture and fusion detail in country radar → Cell confidence: heuristic from top-slice + data age. NF — — A30 high 249 2026-05-01 12:00:00 UTC UCD — — NW — — OS — — R7 — — How the synthesis score (0–100) is builtWith a kinetic trace (ACLED 30d or UCDP): weighted blend of kinetic vs media dimensions (each source scaled to the page maximum). No forecast — structured orientation, not statistical significance. Synthesis 83 med Convergence 1/6 Nowcast 82.6 Baseline 0 Impact 39 Composite 42 ACLED 30d high 247 Δ / avg -41.1% As of 2026-05-01 12:00:00 UTC Sources 1 UCDP year — — Δ / avg — As of Year 2026 Sources 1 News risk — — Δ / avg — As of — Sources 1 Raw signals 7d — — Δ / avg — As of — Sources 1 Kinetic: A30 · Media: — Elevated overlap 1 windows with data Sources: A30 Board 2026-05-13 06:16:06 UTC ACLED 30d Δ -41.1% Türkiye: elevated overlap across windows — mind each metric’s time reference. Event picture and fusion detail in country radar → Cell confidence: heuristic from top-slice + data age. NF — — A30 high 247 2026-05-01 12:00:00 UTC UCD — — NW — — OS — — R7 — — How the synthesis score (0–100) is builtWith a kinetic trace (ACLED 30d or UCDP): weighted blend of kinetic vs media dimensions (each source scaled to the page maximum). No forecast — structured orientation, not statistical significance. Rankings · conflict and violenceTabular top areas: monthly instability, ACLED 30 days and UCDP reference year. At-a-glance NFSI · intensity ACLED 30d · relative ACLED · Monthly · NationFiles stability index (NFSI) Show explanationLatest ACLED month slice. Sorting: lowest NFSI first (highest urgency). Table value = NFSI (100 is best). “Intensity” bar = relative stress (100 − NFSI) within this ranking.
ACLED · Area · 30 days Show explanationCounts documented events and deaths in the last 30 days (UTC) from ACLED.
UCDP GED · reference year Show explanationSum of battle-related deaths (UCDP “high”) for the displayed reference year.
Watchlist and cross-cutCountries strong in several lists at once — convergence across signal sources. Watchlist · convergence matrix Show explanationIntersection of several top lists; each column mirrors the latest value from that source for the country. ISO2 codes appearing in several top slices at once (higher convergence = broader signal overlap). Countries with convergence ≥ 2 only. Grouped by UN subregion (fallback: continent from master data, e.g. NORTH AMERICA). If the Americas seem “missing”, no state there currently meets the threshold across enough top lists at once — Caribbean / Central America appear as separate headings when they qualify. EASTERN EUROPE
SOUTHERN ASIA
Legend — B2B weight: H = high estimated market/supply-chain relevance (population proxy, from ~80M), M = medium (from ~12M), L = low (below). Choke column: "high" = heuristic choke-point hint (e.g. straits); "—" = none. Aggregations use the latest available observation per source; NFSI is the NationFiles stability index from the newest ACLED monthly slice per ISO2 (0–100, 100 = more stable); UCDP uses the newest reference year in the database. The convergence matrix may still show news, OSINT and raw-signal columns per country; the separate media ranking tables are removed. |